Crested Butte Avalanche Center

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Reported Friday, January 27, 2012 at 7:00 AM

	Weather Forecast Today: Snow tapering off through the day with another 1-3" likely Northwest winds 10-20 mph and highs in the mid 20's Tonight: Clearing skies with light Northwest winds and lows in the single digits Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with light Northwest winds and highs in the mid 20's

Last night we saw a fast moving wave of moisture drop in from the North giving us a quick dump of snow. A cold front followed early this morning, squeezing a bit more snow out, and today we will see decent orographic lift continue to fuel snow showers at higher elevations, while things will clear out faster closer to town. Tomorrow we will see the sun return with warm temperatures following for the weekend.

THE CRESTED BUTTE AVALANCHE CENTER IS ISSUING AN AVALANCHE WARNING FOR FRIDAY 1/27
Last nights snow was accompanied by strong Southwest winds which will have added a new load to our already fragile snowpack. New wind slabs of 1-2 feet will have formed at higher elevations on Easterly facing slopes. These slabs will be resting on older wind slabs which were tender to begin with. A natural wind slab avalanche was reported yesterday from Scarp Ridge as a SS-N-R3-D2-O which broke two feet deep and 600 feet wide running 800 vertical. Below treeline another remotely triggered avalanche was reported from Coney's ridge as a SS-ASr-R3-D2-O and was triggered from 50 meters away. Shallow wind slab avalanches were also reported from Wednesday above treeline on Northeast through Southeast slopes.
We have a very weak base to our snowpack, and after receiving close to 5 feet of snow in the past 10 days we are beginning to see the tipping point.

The danger today is HIGH (Level 4) on North-East and Southeast slope at and above treeline The danger is CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) on Westerly slopes and below treeline

LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING

AVALANCHE SIZE

Trend

Winds last night blew in the 25 mph range with ridge top gusts in the 40's. These predominately Southwest winds were the perfect speed for loading snow onto leeward slopes. Winds will move to the Northwest today and continue to move snow and build slabs. These wind slabs are at the point of releasing naturally and could step down into older slab layers deep in the snowpack, creating large avalanches.

LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING

AVALANCHE SIZE

Trend

Weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack as well as in the middle have been releasing avalanches near and below treeline. Stiff slabs rest over these layers from last week's snow as well as from big wind events around the New Year. These slabs are carrying failures over large distances with large whumphs and widespread cracking being reported over the past week. With an additional 6-8" on these weak layers today, expect triggered avalanche to be likely on any slope steeper than 30 degrees.

Backcountry conditions are very tender right now. We have seen all the classic warning signs over the past week with cracking, collapsing and avalanche activity. Today's new load of snow has made conditions ripe for natural and triggered avalanches which could be quite large in some cases. Be aware of any slopes steeper than 30 degrees near or around you. Right now you can trigger avalanches from far away, even when you think you are in a safe place. Also remember that there are areas of avalanche terrain close to town as well. Be aware of steep slopes near The Bench, behind the Nordic Center, along Peanut Lake Road, the Lower Loop and on the steep slopes below and across from the CBMR base area.

Steve Banks